Fuel prices across West and Central Africa are coming under renewed pressure as higher international oil and supply costs expose the fiscal burden of keeping prices at the pump below their economic cost.
Across the UEMOA and CEMAC regions, governments use subsidies, regulated prices and other measures to limit the impact of higher fuel costs on consumers. The result is that the price paid at the pump can differ significantly from the underlying cost of importing, transporting and distributing petroleum products. When governments prevent those costs from being passed on to consumers, the difference is ultimately absorbed by public finances.
The bill is moving from consumers to governments
Senegal provides a recent example. On August 15, the price of premium gasoline increased from about $1.64 to $1.76 per liter, while diesel rose from approximately $1.21 to $1.34. The government had already spent more than $436 million supporting fuel prices since the beginning of 2026, making it increasingly difficult to absorb higher supply costs without adjusting retail prices.
Burkina Faso has faced a similar problem. The diesel subsidy reportedly reached about $107 million during the first six months of 2026, prompting the authorities to raise the price. Mali opted for a sharper adjustment. Gasoline increased from roughly $1.38 to $1.56 per liter, while diesel rose from about $1.29 to $1.67 — an increase of almost 30%. The different approaches reflect the same fiscal calculation: keeping fuel prices low means the state absorbs more of the cost, while raising prices shifts part of that burden back to consumers.
Cameroon shows how large the subsidy bill can become
The CEMAC region provides an even clearer illustration of the fiscal risks involved. In Cameroon, fuel subsidies reached about $1.6 billion in 2022, equivalent to 3.2% of GDP, according to the IMF. Broader estimates put the figure above $1.8 billion.
Fuel-price increases introduced in subsequent years significantly reduced that burden. The IMF estimated that the 2024 adjustment generated around $338 million in budgetary savings, equivalent to 0.6% of GDP. The cost of the subsidy subsequently fell from around 4% of GDP in 2022 to less than 1% in 2024.
But renewed pressure on international oil prices is putting the issue back on the agenda. Even oil-producing countries are not immune: higher crude prices can increase export revenues while simultaneously raising the cost of maintaining artificially low domestic fuel prices.
Equatorial Guinea is also moving toward reducing fuel subsidies. The IMF estimates that an initial increase of about $0.13 per liter would cut the gap between the administered pump price and the market cost by roughly one-third, while the associated fiscal challenge is estimated at around $36 million.
The price at the pump tells only part of the story
The experience of UEMOA and CEMAC highlights a broader issue for African economies. A liter of fuel sold at a relatively low price may carry a much higher economic cost once import expenses, transport, storage, taxes and commercial margins are taken into account. That creates two separate bills. The first is visible and paid by the motorist at the pump. The second is absorbed by the state through subsidies, compensation mechanisms or other fiscal measures.
For governments, prolonged fuel subsidies can reduce the room available for infrastructure, healthcare and other public spending while putting additional pressure on state-owned fuel-importing companies.
The issue is therefore not simply how much motorists pay for fuel. It is how much of the real cost governments can continue to absorb without putting additional pressure on public finances.
For many countries across West and Central Africa, the answer is becoming increasingly difficult as international energy costs rise and fiscal space remains limited.
