The United States plans to remove South Africa and Rwanda from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) from January 1, 2027, ending their eligibility for duty-free treatment on qualifying exports if the program is extended beyond its current expiry. The change would affect a much larger volume of trade in South Africa, which shipped about $1.7 billion in goods to the US under AGOA in 2025. For Rwanda, the value at stake is less clear because available data do not show how much of its US-bound trade used the program.
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced the decision on November 2, following an annual review of eligible countries. The Trump administration said both governments had failed to meet AGOA’s requirements, citing barriers to US trade and investment and concerns over national security and foreign policy. It also raised concerns about corruption in South Africa and human rights, workers’ rights, the rule of law and political pluralism in Rwanda. These are Washington’s stated grounds for the decision.
South Africa faces the larger trade impact
South Africa has been AGOA’s largest beneficiary. Its exporters used the program to ship about $1.7 billion worth of goods to the US duty-free in 2025. These exports accounted for roughly 10% of South African shipments to the US and around 1% of the country’s total global exports.
The main beneficiaries included vehicle and auto-parts manufacturers, citrus producers and wine exporters. Before the planned exclusion, qualifying products could enter the US without the import duties normally applied to them, provided they met AGOA’s rules of origin.
If South Africa loses eligibility, exporters will no longer receive that preference. Products that would otherwise face US import duties will be subject to the applicable standard rates, unless another exemption or arrangement applies. This could raise costs for US importers and make some South African goods less competitive against supplies from countries that retain preferential access.
The effect will not be uniform. Some products already enter the US duty-free under standard tariff rules, while others face separate tariffs that AGOA does not remove. The loss of AGOA benefits would therefore matter most for goods that currently qualify for the program and would otherwise attract import duties.
Rwanda’s exposure is harder to measure
Rwanda’s trade with the US is considerably smaller. US imports from Rwanda reached $43.3 million in 2025, up 43.3% from the previous year. Rwandan exports include coffee, tea, minerals and smaller volumes of agricultural and processed goods.
However, the available figures do not identify how much of this trade entered under AGOA. The direct value of the preferences Rwanda stands to lose, and the additional duties exporters could face, are therefore difficult to calculate.
Rwanda has already lost part of its AGOA access. In 2018, the first Trump administration suspended duty-free treatment for Rwandan apparel exports following a dispute over Kigali’s tariffs on imported used clothing and footwear. Other eligible Rwandan products retained access. The new decision would extend the exclusion to those remaining product categories.
For coffee, tea and other exporters, the consequences will depend on the tariff rates applicable to each product and whether shipments previously qualified for AGOA. Where the preference made a difference to the final import cost, losing it could weaken exporters’ price position in the US market.
The timing matters
AGOA, enacted in 2000, gives eligible sub-Saharan African countries duty-free access to the US market for thousands of products. It is currently authorized only through December 31, 2026, following a one-year extension signed in February. Its continuation beyond that date requires further action by Congress.
This means the planned exclusions are tied to the program’s possible continuation: if Congress does not renew AGOA, its preferences will expire for all participating countries. If it does, South African and Rwandan exporters would lose access to benefits available to other eligible economies.
South Africa’s government has said it will support affected industries and pursue export-market diversification. For Rwanda, the first task will be to establish which sectors and shipments rely on AGOA preferences. In both countries, the commercial impact will depend less on the headline value of exports to the US than on which products actually benefited from duty-free entry and what tariffs they would face without it.
