After more than a decade of UN peacekeeping, the Central African Republic is approaching a new phase in its security transition. MINUSCA is preparing for a gradual transfer of responsibilities to national institutions, but the move raises a difficult question: is the mission shrinking because CAR is becoming strong enough to take over, or because international peacekeeping itself is becoming harder to sustain?
CAR has made measurable progress. President Faustin-Archange Touadéra secured re-election, the country completed another electoral cycle, and authorities have expanded state institutions into areas where government presence was previously weak. Progress has also been reported under the peace agreement, security-sector reform and voluntary disarmament programs. The African Union has welcomed these developments as signs of improving political and security conditions.
Yet the picture remains incomplete. Armed groups and criminal networks continue to operate in parts of Vakaga, Haut-Mbomou and Mbomou, with recurring attacks and insecurity along some border areas. The AU has called for stronger state presence, the restoration of civilian administration and the removal of illegal checkpoints. It has also warned that the transition must not create a security vacuum.
MINUSCA itself is not describing the process as an abrupt withdrawal. UN officials and CAR authorities have repeatedly stressed that responsibilities should be transferred gradually, in an orderly and coordinated way, with conditions on the ground determining the pace. The mission remains mandated to protect civilians and support the country's political and security transition.
Another factor is harder to ignore: money.
MINUSCA has already faced serious financial pressure. Funding shortages have forced the mission to reduce spending and scale back personnel and activities, affecting its ability to carry out its mandate. In other words, the debate is no longer only about whether CAR still needs international peacekeepers. It is also about how much international peacekeeping the UN system can continue to finance at its previous scale.
That distinction matters. A smaller UN presence could reflect genuine progress if national institutions are increasingly capable of protecting civilians and maintaining security. But if the reduction is driven partly by financial constraints while insecurity remains in parts of the country, the transition carries a different kind of risk.
A UN Security Council report due on September 15 is expected to provide detailed recommendations on the future transition, including its sequencing, timeline and the transfer of responsibilities. The report will help shape discussions before MINUSCA's mandate comes up for renewal in November.
CAR therefore faces a test that goes beyond the future of one UN mission. Bangui must show that the progress achieved over recent years can survive with greater national responsibility, while international partners must ensure that a reduction in peacekeeping capacity does not move faster than improvements on the ground.
MINUSCA may eventually leave. The more important question is whether CAR will be ready when it does.
