Here is a trick worth knowing: if you want a third term but don't want to be seen wanting it, you don't pass a law giving yourself a third term. You pass a law that lets the constitution be rewritten "if the people wish it" — and then you make sure the people are asked under conditions you control entirely.
That is precisely what just happened in Kinshasa, and it happened twice in one week.
The Vote Nobody Was Surprised By
On Monday, DRC's Senate approved a bill setting out how referendums are conducted in the country — 89 senators in favour, 20 abstaining. The bill had already passed the lower house earlier this month and now moves to the Constitutional Court before reaching President Félix Tshisekedi for final signature.
The mechanism is elegant in its cynicism: a referendum on a new constitution under which Tshisekedi's previous terms simply wouldn't count against him — effectively resetting the clock to zero. Not extending his mandate. Erasing it.
Technically, the bill leaves Article 220 — which prohibits any amendment to the number or duration of presidential terms — completely untouched. What it creates instead is an exceptional pathway: a constituent assembly that can be triggered when state institutions experience what the legislation calls "major dysfunction."
Given that DRC is simultaneously fighting M23 in the east and an Ebola outbreak that has now killed over a hundred people, "dysfunction" is not exactly a high bar to clear if you're looking for one.
The Sentence That Says Everything While Promising Nothing
Tshisekedi has been almost artful in how he has avoided directly asking for what he clearly wants.
"I have not asked for a third term, but I tell you this: If the people want me to have a third term, I will accept," he told reporters in Kinshasa in early May.
It is the political equivalent of saying "I'm not hungry" while already holding a fork.
The Coincidence That Wasn't Really a Coincidence
The National Assembly passed the original bill on June 9 — the exact same day Ebola deaths in the country topped 100. Development Diaries, which has tracked the overlap closely, argues this timing is not accidental: a country distracted by a public health emergency has less bandwidth to mobilize against a quieter constitutional manoeuvre happening in parliament.
Whether that is deliberate strategy or simply bad luck for the opposition, the effect is the same — two crises competing for the same finite public attention, and only one of them involves a referendum that resets presidential term limits.
Washington's Name Keeps Coming Up
This is the detail that turns a domestic power struggle into something with international fingerprints.
The referendum debate has become entangled with DRC's deepening relationship with the United States. Tshisekedi himself has suggested that some reforms requested by American partners could require constitutional changes — a statement that has alarmed observers because it creates the impression that an international minerals partnership is being used to justify a domestic power grab. One academic interviewed by German broadcaster DW went further, suggesting the strategic minerals deal with Washington has measurably strengthened Tshisekedi's political confidence to push through changes he might otherwise have hesitated over.
Blood in the Streets, Before the Vote Even Happened
The Senate vote came just days after protests against the proposed changes turned violent in Kinshasa. Demonstrators clashed with security forces near parliament, with authorities using tear gas and, according to multiple witnesses, live ammunition to disperse crowds. A prominent opposition figure was shot in the leg. Government has not commented on whether live rounds were actually authorized.
Even Former Allies Are Turning
Former president Joseph Kabila — already at odds with Tshisekedi over separate US sanctions he calls politically motivated — has come out publicly against the constitutional amendment, adding his voice to a normally fractured opposition that has, for once, found something to unite around.
What Comes Next
Bill now sits with the Constitutional Court, which several legal experts expect may strike down at least parts of it. If it survives that test, it goes to Tshisekedi for signature. If he signs it, a referendum follows — on his terms, at his timing, framed as the people's choice rather than his ambition.
Next door in Zimbabwe, Emmerson Mnangagwa is fighting a strikingly similar battle to extend his own rule past constitutional limits. Across the region, the playbook is starting to look less like coincidence and more like a trend with a shared author.
