African cities are projected to add 213 million residents over the next 25 years, creating expanding labor markets and consumer demand. But whether this demographic growth translates into higher productivity, more jobs and rising living standards will depend on investment, infrastructure and cities’ ability to attract productive businesses.
The projection comes from Oxford Economics’ 2026 Global Cities Index, which assesses 1,000 major cities worldwide. The research estimates that major African cities will add around 200 million more residents than major European cities over the same period. Oxford Economics also projects that Cairo and Kinshasa will become the world’s fourth- and fifth-most-populous cities by 2050, while Lagos and Luanda will enter the global top 20. Seven additional African cities are expected to become megacities, defined as urban areas with more than 10 million residents.
The broader demographic shift is also reflected in a 2025 report by the OECD and its partners, which projects that Africa’s urban population will grow from around 700 million to 1.4 billion by 2050. The report estimates that urban areas will absorb 80% of the continent’s population growth, increasing demand for housing, transport, utilities and public services.
A growing workforce, but no guaranteed economic dividend
Oxford Economics identifies human capital as a relative strength of African cities in its 2026 index. Five cities — Johannesburg, Nairobi, Kampala, Cairo and Lagos — rank among the global top 50 in this category, while 97 of the 113 African cities included in the index improved their overall positions this year.
A growing working-age population could expand the labor supply, strengthen domestic markets and increase the continent’s appeal to investors. However, population growth alone does not guarantee that businesses will create enough productive jobs or that household incomes will rise.
The World Bank has identified structural barriers that limit the economic performance of many cities in sub-Saharan Africa. These include fragmented urban development, inadequate transport links and regulatory constraints that restrict access to jobs and markets. Its research argues that cities need stronger connections to regional and international trade, including through manufacturing and other industries producing goods and services for export.
Rapid urban expansion also places greater demands on public finances and urban planning. Without coordinated investment in transport, housing, energy, water and sanitation, growing populations can put additional pressure on services and make it harder for workers and businesses to connect. Climate risks add to these challenges, particularly where infrastructure and housing are vulnerable to flooding, heat and other environmental pressures.
Five cities could account for a third of projected growth
Oxford Economics expects Accra, Cairo, Dakar, Luanda and Nairobi to generate one-third of the total GDP growth among African cities covered by its index over the next 25 years. The five cities were selected for its “Cities to Watch” category, which highlights urban economies the research firm expects to gain momentum.
Their economic prospects differ. Accra and Nairobi have recorded strong growth in information technology and financial services. Dakar’s prospects are linked in part to professional services and efforts to strengthen education and skills. Luanda’s development outlook includes the potential to use hydrocarbon revenues to finance infrastructure and diversify the economy. Cairo benefits from the scale of its urban economy and its location linking Africa, the Middle East and Europe.
The concentration of projected growth in a small group of cities could create stronger economic hubs, but it also raises questions about how widely the benefits will spread. Their performance will depend not only on population growth but also on whether investment, employment and essential services keep pace.
Africa’s urban transition is therefore both an economic opportunity and a planning challenge. Expanding labor markets and consumer demand could influence international investment and trade, extending the effects beyond the continent. The central question is whether African cities can turn demographic momentum into sustained productivity gains and broader improvements in living standards.
